Sunday, March 11, 2012

U.S. government debt default -- one way or another

The U.S. debt is now so large it is beyond most peoples' ability to conceptualize. How will the U.S. get out of this debt? By defaulting on its obligations. 

The U.S. should, and probably will, default on its debt, either outright or through inflation. Why should this happen? If is doesn't, our children and grandchildren will be turned into serfs. 

Say the U.S. government doesn't default on its debt. That means young people will be forced to pay higher taxes in the future to pay it off. At the moment, interest rates are low. As inflation takes hold however, those rates will rise. When that happens the interest payments on the debt that taxpayers will be forced to pay will also rise. This will take more and more tax dollars out of government coffers and put it into the hands of bondholders. At the same time, taxes will have to rise to fund health care, social security and other entitlement programs. People will be forced to pay taxes for spending they never voted on - they will be little more than serfs. 

Default will punish all those who lent money to government. (Just like what is happening in Greece right now.)

So how will the government default on its debt? In one of two ways. The government could, as many homeowners have, just stop paying what it owes on the debt - an outright default. 

Or, what is more likely, the value of what the U.S. government owes to bondholders will be reduced via the scourge of inflation. 

Sure, individual citizens who hold U.S. government bonds, and banks, mutual funds, pension funds would lose money, but the upside is they would never lend money to the federal government again. 

Sure, foreign governments who have been keeping the U.S. government spending spree afloat would lose money, but the upside is they would never lend to the U.S. government again. 

OK, never is a long time and memories are short. People would eventually start lending to the U.S. government again just like they did to a number of U.S. states that defaulted on their debts in the 1840's. In the meantime, government would be forced to spend only what it collected in taxes. We would once again be living within our means and not creating a legacy of debt and higher taxes to future generations. 

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